Oil prices plunged 15% and stocks rose 3% overnight after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But there is still conflict in the region and only a few ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates, but lifted its inflation forecasts.
And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says the oil market is not going to return to its pre-conflict state any time soon, even if the ceasefire holds.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices fell and stocks rose after the US and Israel agreed to a two week ceasefire with Iran. The pause in the conflict is set to allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which was being blocked by Iran. However, as ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says, there may not be a sudden rush, or increase in oil supply.
ANZ Economist in London, Henry Russell, says markets overnight generally held onto the gains seen after the ceasefire was announced. However, there was ongoing fighting in the region and only a handful of ships were reported to have transited the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid all this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its Official Cash Rate at 2.25%. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the RBNZ unexpectedly provided a new forecast for inflation, despite it not being a forecast round.
ANZ Research continues to forecast the OCR to rise again in New Zealand in December, but Sharon says the risks are now tilted to that being earlier.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australia Consumer Confidence lifted 3.5 points off its historic low last week, but was still the second-worst result on record. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the bump came as a temporary fuel excise reduction took effect.
Cheers
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with further updates on the ceasefire.
