US hiring is weak in January, raising questions of whether a Fed rate cut in March could be on the cards; New Zealand’s unemployment rate rises, but there are positive signals; and the ECB and Bank of England are both expected to hold rates today amid cutting cycles.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the implications for India’s economy from the deal to reduce US tariffs earlier this week.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US January ADP private sector jobs rose at half the expected pace, suggesting hiring continues to be weak. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says if the weakness shows through in next-week’s non-farm payrolls then the market may start questioning whether a Fed rate cut in March is appropriate.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked up at the end of 2025 to 5.4% as more people started to look for work. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says despite the headline, there were positive signs the jobs market is turning, with employment rising 0.5% in the quarter.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was picking employment growth of only 0.2%. Miles says while the upward surprise is positive for activity, there are still signs that the jobs market is not at an inflation-inducing level.
South Korea released inflation data for January this week, with the headline rate slowing to the central bank’s target of 2%. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says there was a pullback in both energy and food inflation.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England have rate calls today. ANZ Research expects the ECB to leave its benchmark rate at 2% and cut later in the year. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says the Bank of England is also expected to hold at 3.75% but signal cuts are likely in coming months.
Cheers,
Bernard.
Catch you tomorrow with those ECB and BoE rate decisions.
