Markets were calmer overnight, with Bank of Japan officials reassuring that hikes won’t happen amid market instability. New Zealand’s job data left no smoking gun to justify the RBNZ cutting next week. The RBI is set to hold rates today.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how Australia’s relatively stronger jobs market is attracting Kiwis across the Tasman again.
5 things to know:
Markets had a calmer session overnight. A BoJ official said it wouldn’t hike rates while markets were unstable. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says the BoJ is trying to emphasise that monetary policy shifts will only be gradual.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumped from 4.4% to 4.6% in Q2, which was lower than market expectations, but matched the Reserve Bank’s forecasts. Jobs growth of 0.4% beat forecasts, which ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says meant there wasn’t a smoking gun to justify a RBNZ cut next week.
Miles says there was nothing in the data to cause ANZ Research to rethink its call that the RBNZ will cut rates from November. Measures such as the underutilisation rate showed a broad-based loosening in the labour market.
Thailand’s annual inflation rate in July came in at 0.83% vs expectations for 0.7%, and below the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% target range. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the overshoot was due to higher food prices.
ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim expects the Reserve Bank of India to hold its policy rate at 6.5% later today after annual inflation was above 5% in June. He says the RBI will want to be confident food inflation is falling before it can cut from December.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with analysis of the Reserve Bank of India’s rate decision.
