Oil prices and stocks take a breather as the US and Iran consider a ceasefire extension. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching March job figures for signs of ongoing strength. India’s trade falls due to the Middle East conflict.
And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala looks at how higher global energy prices will affect Australian imports and the federal budget.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices were up around 1% and stocks rose slightly in a relatively tame session as traders assessed news the US and Iran are considering an extension to their two-week ceasefire. ANZ Economist in London Henry Russell says markets took a breather after strong risk rallies in the previous two sessions.
Australian jobs figures for March are published today. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk is expecting the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.2%, and employment to rise by 15,000.
Aaron says the RBA has been viewing the labour market as tight in recent months - part of the backdrop for recent rate hikes.
ANZ Research has downgraded its Australian private sector credit growth forecasts due to the Middle East conflict and higher domestic interest rates. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk expects growth to ease from 7.5% in 2025 to 7.2% this year and then 5.7% in 2027. That’s down from a previous low of 6.5%.
India’s imports fell 6.5% in the year to March, while exports were down 7.4%. ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim says the falls were due to the Middle East conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
Cheers
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what those Australian jobs numbers could mean for the RBA.
