US jobs growth is higher than expected in January, pushing market expectations towards a July cut by the Fed. ANZ Research lowers its Australian growth forecast after last week’s RBA hike, slightly. And Australian first home buyers jumped into the market in the December quarter.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses Papua New Guinea’s economic performance as international capital looks to invest in large infrastructure projects.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US non-farm payroll jobs grew a stronger than expected 130,000 in January. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there was still weakness in the detail, with growth concentrated in health and education, and half of all industries experiencing declining payrolls. Markets concentrated expectations on a July cut by the Fed.
ANZ Research has lowered - slightly - its forecast for Australian GDP growth this year, following last week’s RBA rate hike. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says growth of just below 2% is now expected compared to a little above 2% previously.
Adam says ANZ Research’s annual inflation forecasts - particularly trimmed mean - were also nudged up a bit, although on a quarterly basis inflation likely peaked back in Q3 last year.
Australian first home buyers stepped up at the end of 2025, with the number of new housing loans to the cohort up 6.8% in Q4. That was above the 5.5% lift in investor loans. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says Government support helped.
China’s consumer price growth eased to 0.2% in January from 0.8% in December. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says this was due to an earlier holiday and that there should be a February rebound. Meanwhile, factory price deflation continued, with prices down 1.4% annually, although this was to a lesser extent than expected.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead to key US CPI data out on Friday, hot on the heels of those jobs numbers.
