Chances rise that the RBA may hike in May after inflation stays high in January. The Aussie dollar rose. The US indicates it will respect existing trade agreements. And the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cuts rates.
And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly reviews how New Zealand’s all-important primary industries have weathered the start of 2026.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated the US intended to respect existing bilateral trade agreements and only raise new tariffs from 10% to 15% “where appropriate”. ANZ Economist in London Henry Russell says the comments reduce the risk of a re-escalation in trade tensions.
Australia’s monthly headline CPI stayed at 3.8% in January, against expectations for a small drop from the level which saw the RBA hike rates this month. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell says housing related costs and some discretionary consumer categories remained strong.
The Australian dollar rose about 0.7% immediately after the inflation numbers. Adelaide says the print adds to the pressure on the RBA to hike.
Australian construction work was broadly flat in Q4 last year, against market expectations for an increase of about 1%. Adelaide says that was due to weaker public sector activity.
The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1% yesterday. ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak says the central bank highlighted growth being below potential and current debt burdens on SMEs and households.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with the latest Australian capex data and what it says about economic activity.
PPS: And our apologies for yesterday’s late delivery of the podcast for some listeners on some other podcast platforms, which was due to technical problems on Megaphone.
