Fed rate cut bets ease back after stronger US jobs and services reports. New Zealand’s jobless rate rises but may be through the worst. Indonesia’s growth is dented, and deflation continues in Thailand.
In our Deep-Dive interview ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be feeling comfortable with how the country’s labour market is performing.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Market expectations for a US Fed rate cut in December eased back slightly overnight, after slightly stronger US jobs and services reports. October saw the first positive ADP jobs report in three months - up 42,000 - although ANZ Head of G3 economics Brian Martin says momentum is still soft.
The ISM services index in the US rose to its highest level since February, driven by a rebound in new orders. Brian says an important subcomponent (tracking services prices paid) remains sticky, as some FOMC members are uncomfortable about inflation levels.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.3% - as expected - in the third quarter, the highest since late-2016. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says the jobs market looks to be through the worst.
Indonesia’s GDP growth fell back slightly to 5.04% year-on-year in the third quarter - near expectations. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says social unrest in late August led to falls in private consumption and investment. Net exports were a bright spot.
Thailand’s CPI fell 0.76% year-on-year in October, the seventh straight month of deflation. Krystal says the drop was led by sharp energy price declines following government cuts to diesel and gasoline prices.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a rate decision from the Bank of England - expected by ANZ Research to be a hold, due to high inflation.
