Global bond yields take a breather and US stocks rise. Australia’s growth eased in the first half of 2026, but a November rate hike remains on the cards. The RBNZ lifts rates but the Kiwi drops as guidance changes.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses how Australia’s economy was placed after the second quarter.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Global bond yields took a breather and US equities rose as traders tempered inflation fears - oil rose less than 1% even as the Middle East conflict intensified. ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers says there’s been a shift in recent weeks in terms of what is driving Government bonds, with a focus back on oil prices driving inflation.
Australia’s economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter and, with revisions, was up 2.1% over the year. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says the key message is that activity in the first half of 2026 slowed relative to how it ended 2025.
Australian rates and RBA hike expectations firmed after the data was published. Jack says that’s unusual after a GDP release.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the OCR 25 basis points to 2.75% yesterday. That was as expected. But ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the RBNZ tempered forward guidance, indicating an October hike was less likely amid a hiking cycle.
The New Zealand dollar and short-term rates dropped. ANZ Senior Strategist David Croy says that contributed to a further steepening in the New Zealand yield curve.
Cheers,
Alex, standing in for Bernard, who will be back from Monday.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with more from Sharon on the path ahead for New Zealand’s economy.
