Signs the sharp edges are coming off the global trade war have lifted US stocks and the US dollar, which means the Aussie and Kiwi dollars start lower this morning. South Korea’s economy weakened before the tariffs, while consumer confidence rises in New Zealand.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says markets may be welcoming some positive tariff news, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Markets will start the week buoyed by signs over the weekend that the sharp edges are being taken off the global tariff war. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says markets are welcoming signs of de-escalation, but caution is required.
South Korea’s economy was weaker than expected in the first three months of the year, as political tensions took their toll on domestic confidence. Q1 GDP fell 0.2% in the quarter, and was down 0.1% from a year ago. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says there was weakness across the board.
ANZ Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 5 points to 98.3 in April, with little evidence that global tariff war hit headline confidence. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the lift was broad-based.
Sharon says a jump in the survey’s inflation expectations from 4.2% to 4.7% could be down to the global trade headlines.
ANZ Research has lowered its forecasts for New Zealand inflation after recently downgrading its growth forecasts on the back of that rising global uncertainty. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says a slightly weaker demand outlook will contribute to lower underlying inflation in the near-term.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a closer look at how South Korea’s economy has been affected by recent political turmoil, and how well-placed it is to deal with global trade uncertainty.
