5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
Monday: Nonfarm payrolls double expectations
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Monday: Nonfarm payrolls double expectations

US jobs grew 336k, beating forecasts for 170k, but wages & unemployment near forecasts; Initial bond selloff reverses; US 10-yr ends at 4.79%; A$, NZ$ opening up; Adelaide Timbrell on the RBA's FSR

US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, but the resulting initial bond market selloff was eventually tepid as it became clear wage growth and unemployment weren’t quite so inflationary.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the RBA’s level of comfort with financial stability in its half-yearly review.

5 things to know

  1. US Nonfarm Payrolls grew 336k in September from August, double expectations. Unemployment was unchanged at 3.8% and hourly wage growth averaged a modest 0.2% for the month and 4.3% for the year.

  2. Financial market expectations for a hike next month nudged up to 33%, while expectations for a hike in December rose to 50%. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the Fed holding with a hawkish tilt.

  3. The US 10-year Treasury yield initially jumped 15 basis points to 4.89%, but ended at 4.79%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%. The US dollar initially rose, but subsided through Friday night. The A$ fell to 63.26c, but opens around 63.85. The NZ$ opens at 59.90c.

  4. Richard says the higher US bond yields and lower asset prices are all part of the tightening mechanism.

  5. US CPI figures for September on Thursday are the main focus for global markets. ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says market expectations are grouped around a 0.3% rise in monthly headline and core inflation, which would allow annual inflation to ease to 3.6% and 4.1% respectively.

Bernard

PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead at what’s at stake for the New Zealand economy in its general election this weekend.

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5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
A daily podcast hosted by Bernard Hickey that gives you the five things you need to know about the global economy and markets in under five minutes. Plus a deep dive into emerging trends and issues featuring ANZ's global team of experts.