Donald Trump hits Taiwan (20%), India (25%) and New Zealand (15%) with higher than expected tariff rates. US jobs figures were weaker than expected in July, and market bets the Fed will cut next month have strengthened.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at the winners and losers from Friday’s big tariff news.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US non-farm payrolls rose 74,000 in July, which was less than the 110,000 consensus of economists’ expectations. But sharp downward revisions in May and June were the real surprise, says ANZ economist in London Bansi Madhavani.
Bansi says the weak jobs figures have increased market expectations the Fed will cut again next month to 82% from 40% before the jobs figures.
The big tariff news on Friday is expected to slow growth in Asia, but not just yet, says ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh.
New Zealand’s 15% tariff rate was up from the 10% indicated on ‘Liberation Day’. The key thing was Australia’s rate stayed at 10%, says ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner.
New Zealand’s consumer confidence fell again in July, as measured by the ANZ Roy Morgan survey. Inflation expectations also rose to 5.1%, the highest level since April 2023, says Sharon.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you with analysis of China’s trade deal negotiations with the United States.
