Oil prices jumped 4% over the weekend on talk of fresh supply cuts. ANZ now sees the RBNZ holding the OCR in late February, vs a hike previously.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why Australia’s major projects pipeline is set to double to over $100 billion, and examines the pressures that will create.
5 things to know
Brent rose 4% to US$81.07/bbl on Saturday after reports OPEC+ may cut output again. That helped the commodity currencies. The A$ was at 65.14 USc at 5am Sydney/Melbourne time, while the NZ$ was at 59.87 USc.
ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why she has changed her RBNZ OCR call to being on hold in late February, from a hike.
Sharon still sees a risk of an OCR hike next year, albeit less than a 50% chance. She also extended out her first cut call by a quarter to early 2025.
Markets will scrutinise the wording of the RBA’s minutes on Tuesday for signs its cash rate is now on hold, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny says.
Tom says he’ll be looking through the Fed’s minutes on Thursday night for more on the Fed’s view about how the US economy can grow faster, with less inflation.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Have a great day celebrating or commiserating over Australia’s Cricket World Cup final win over India, depending on which time zone you might be in.
