Finally, we get a US jobs report, but the data is mixed. Fed minutes show division on whether to cut in December. China holds key rates, and Japanese government borrowing costs rise on stimulus expectations.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks at the situation facing the UK government ahead of next week’s budget.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US jobs rose 119,000 in September, which was more than double the economists’ consensus. But the unrounded unemployment rate rose to 4.44% from 4.3%, which was the highest rate since August 2017, excluding the pandemic, says ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin.
ANZ Senior Economist Tom Kenny says Fed minutes have highlighted growing division over whether rates should be cut in December. They came just as Donald Trump said again he wanted to fire Chair Jerome Powell if he didn’t cut rates a lot.
China left key one and five-year lending rates unchanged yesterday for the sixth month in a row. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says the hold was expected, but that cuts are possible next year.
Japan’s closely-watched 30-year government bond yield hit a record high yesterday of 3.39%. ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan says hawkish comments from a BoJ board member pushing a December rate hike, and expectations of upcoming fiscal stimulus, pushed the borrowing costs up.
New Zealand’s dairy farmers are getting ready to receive a $3.2 billion tax-free capital return from the country’s largest farming co-operative. ANZ Agri Economist Matthew Dilly says that’s worth 0.7% of GDP, or $400,000 on average per Fonterra farmer.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with the last New Zealand rate decision of the year.
