Oil prices surge 5% to two-week highs after the United States sanctions Russian oil exports. Gold rises too. Markets will focus tonight on delayed US inflation data the Fed watches closely. And inflation in Singapore is surprisingly strong.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim tracks how India’s exchange rate has depreciated this year, as a US trade deal potentially draws nearer.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices bounced 5% overnight after the United States announced new sanctions on Russian oil exports to try to force a ceasefire in Ukraine. ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the market’s focus is turning to US CPI data tonight.
ANZ Senior Economist Tom Kenny says those US inflation figures are likely to show headline inflation in September of 0.3%, leaving annual inflation unchanged at 3.1%. He says goods price inflation is higher than the long run averages, but the services inflation watched closely by the Fed is subdued.
The Bank of Korea left rates on hold at 2.5% yesterday, as expected. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the decision reflected persistent concern over rising house prices and currency volatility. She says there’s a chance of a rate cut in November, but that rates are more likely to stay on hold until early in the new year.
Singapore’s CPI inflation came in above expectations in September for both the headline and core measures. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says retail goods prices led the charge.
Khoon says the result suggests Singapore dollar strength is no longer putting downward pressure on tradable prices. He sees the Monetary Authority of Singapore keeping policy on hold for the foreseeable future.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with what US inflation data could mean for the Fed and its rate cut path.
