US September hike expectations fall on Fed comments - so stocks rise. The Yen strengthens on BoJ hike bets. Australia imports more data processing tech. Higher import prices hit New Zealand’s terms of trade.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews where New Zealand’s economy is headed after the RBNZ hiked rates again this week.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Fed September hike bets fell to about 50% after Fed Governor Waller said current settings could get inflation back to 2%. In contrast, expectations are firming that the Bank of Japan will hike in September, says ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman. The Yen strengthened overnight.
Malaysia’s central bank held rates at 2.75% yesterday. ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur says subdued inflation allowed for the hold - although price pressures are coming. ANZ Research expects a 25 basis point hike to 3% in November.
Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed by $400 million in July to $1.9 billion. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says exports declined 3.3%, driven by a pull-back in non-monetary gold. Imports fell by 2.5%, but within that, capital goods imports rose 6.7%, led by data processing equipment.
New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade fell 9% in Q2 as import prices rose faster than export prices. Meanwhile, ANZ’s New Zealand Commodity Price Index fell 0.4% in world terms in August. ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly says strength in milk powder was offset by falls in beef and butter prices.
Matt says beef has been affected by efforts of the US government to reduce prices.
Cheers,
Alex, standing in for Bernard, who will be back from Monday.
PS: Catch you next week with what US jobs data tonight could mean for the Fed.
