Oil prices and jet fuel prices rise as traders look to OPEC for guidance. China sets its lowest growth target since 1991. And Australian household spending is weaker than expected.
And then in part two of our deep-dive interview on Australia’s major projects pipeline, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains what’s behind the coming fall in large public projects.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices rose another 3% overnight as the war in the Middle East widened to include Azerbaijan. European jet fuel prices rose 12% and oil prices rose another 3%, pushing up yields in debt markets fearing higher inflation. That pushed down stock prices overnight. It’s all about oil. ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes says markets are looking to OPEC for signals on production, storage and supply.
China yesterday set its lowest annual growth target since 1991, of between 4.5% and 5% for 2026. ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou says the target, and the new five-year plan from 2026 were along expected lines.
Australia’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed slightly in January to $2.6 billion as import values rose and export values fell - led by rural goods and resources exports. Non-monetary gold exports however were up again - by 9% over the month. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says there may be some volatility coming linked to the Middle East conflict.
Australian household spending grew a softer-than-expected 0.3% in January after a slight fall in December. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk says discretionary spending was softer in January.
A key part of New Zealand’s GDP data was weaker than expected in Q4. The value of building work put in place fell 3.1% from the September quarter. ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says it does add some downside risk to ANZ Research’s current forecast for 0.7% growth in the quarter.
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with further developments from the Middle East conflict and what they could mean for markets.
