US data releases remain disrupted as opinions on US rate cuts diverge. Australia’s unemployment rate falls after strong jobs growth. And New Zealand’s recovering labour market is supporting a migration turn-around.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at where the hotspots are for lending to Australian housing investors.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US data releases remain disrupted despite the end of the US shutdown. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says that places reliance on private sector data when assessing what the Fed will do next. ANZ Research is picking a 25 bps cut to the Fed Funds Fate in December.
Bansi says there’s a growing divergence of opinion about what the FOMC will do next, which introduces risk around that rate call.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell back more than expected to 4.3% in October from 4.5% in September. Employment rose by 42,000, which was double the market expectation, says ANZ Economist Aaron Luk.
Aaron says the data will reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view that the labour market is tight. ANZ Research projects one more rate cut this cycle, early next year.
New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted net migration was 1,800 in September, up slightly from August and above the last year’s monthly average. ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says the improvement comes as the job market is recovering.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with a review of Chinese October retail sales out today, and a look ahead to RBA meeting minutes, out Tuesday.
