Oil prices jump on reports the US could strike Iran within days. ANZ Research sees three Fed rate cuts this year, rather than two, but starting in June, rather than March. Australia’s jobless rate was flat in February, which the RBA may consider is still tight.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman has released his latest outlook for the New Zealand economy.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices rose another 2% overnight after various reports that the US could strike Iran within days, and that Donald Trump had set a deadline of 10 days. Meanwhile, ANZ Research now sees the Fed cutting rates three times in 2026, rather than two, with the restart in cuts in the second quarter, probably June, rather than March, says ANZ Economist Henry Russell.
Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% in January, against expectations for a small increase. Employment rose by nearly 18,000. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk says January is often a noisy month data-wise.
Aaron says the 4.1% headline unemployment rate would likely have the Reserve Bank of Australia viewing the labour market as a bit tight, although he says there are signs of slack.
Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 4.75% yesterday, due to an ongoing desire to not let its currency weaken. However, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the central bank is open to further rate cuts if it is able to.
The Philippines central bank cut rates 25 basis points to 4.25%, the sixth straight cut in a row. ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak says the BSP is looking to underwrite economic confidence following a government corruption scandal.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with a review of US PCE inflation data for January, out tonight, and what it could mean for the Fed.
