Oil rises 3% after Iran issues new threats. US bond yields rise ahead of US jobs data tonight. Gold exports lift Australia back to a trade surplus. And New Zealand’s commodity prices fall as dairy prices weaken.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses the big yen move, and downgrades two of his Asia currency forecasts.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices are up 3-3% after Iran announced plans to ban US and Israeli ships from the Persian Gulf, with markets mixed elsewhere. They’re focused on July’s non-farm payrolls data due tonight, and unemployment in particular. ANZ Economist Henry Russell expects the rate to stay at 4.2%.
Henry says it would take a significant surprise in the data for the market to shift from its bias that the Fed will tighten policy in the near term.
Australia’s goods trade balance shifted back into surplus in June, moving by $4.3 billion to a surplus of $1.9 billion. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk points higher gold export returns.
Australias trade balance has been trending down since early 2023, when it was posting monthly surpluses over $13 billion. Maddy says the trade balance may remain lower now as Australia’s import intensity rises.
New Zealand’s export commodity prices have been coming off the boil. ANZ Research’s NZ Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, led by dairy prices, which fell 6.5%, says ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with a review of the latest Chinese price and export data. Also, I’m on leave now until early September, which means Alex Tarrant will be standing in for me.
