US inflation data met forecasts and markets still see the Fed cutting later this year. India’s GDP growth data overnight was much stronger than expected, but there’s a statistical quirk. Australian business investment intentions are rising.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why global demand for copper will stay strong, even as China’s demand fades. It’s all about India.
5 things to know:
US stock and bond prices rose overnight after US core PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, reinforcing hopes for a Fed rate cut later this year, says ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin.
Australian business credit growth strength in January is set to continue after the biggest jump in capex expectations in 12 years, says ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell.
Australian private sector capex in Q4 beat expectations, but not by enough to change ANZ Research’s forecast for 0.3% quarterly GDP growth, Adelaide says.
Australian retail sales in January were below forecasts. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says consumers are waiting for tax cuts and lower inflation and interest rates.
The expenditure measure of India’s GDP grew 8.4% in Q4 vs a year ago, much higher than expected, but mostly because of a statistical quirk with tax receipts. ANZ Economist Dhiraj says the production measure of GDP grew 6.5% and was in line with expectations. It’s slowing, just as the RBI needs, says Dhiraj.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week for a closer look at green bond issuance.
