Commodities and bitcoin slide as US job losses rise to a 17-year high. The European Central Bank holds rates, as does the Bank of England, but only just. Gold exports prop up Australian exports to the US, and a rate cut is on the cards in Thailand.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses how Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could shape the future of US interest rates.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Commodities such as gold, silver and oil, along with bitcoin, fell overnight as investor fears about tech valuations and crypto dominated. Data showing US job losses rising in January to their highest level since 2009 also didn’t help, with bond yields falling sharply along with safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank held its rates, as did the Bank of England, although it was a close-run thing, with four votes for a cut to five votes for a hold. That was more dovish than the market expected, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani.
The final Australian trade data for 2025 showed the surplus in goods widening slightly as export values strengthened. And while the trade balance did trend down over the year as a whole, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says there was a notable uptick in exports to the US due to demand for Australian gold.
Indonesia’s GDP growth beat expectations at the end of 2025, rising 5.39% year-on-year. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says fiscal policy provided a boost to domestic demand.
Thailand’s prices remained deflationary in January, with the CPI falling 0.66% on a 0.28% drop in December. ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak says deflation supports another rate cut by the Bank of Thailand.
Meanwhile, in the Philippines, inflation rose 2% in January. That was slightly stronger than expectations, but Kausani says nothing to worry the central bank, the BSP.
Cheers,
Bernard.
Catch you next week with a review of a Reserve Bank of India rates decision.
