The ECB holds its official interest rates and markets see an 80% chance it will be able to cut again in September. US stocks edge lower with ongoing tech stock nerves. Australian unemployment rises a bit, which is expected to reassure the RBA.
In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the boom-bust cycle for lithium in recent years, due to volatility in demand for EV batteries.
5 things to know:
The ECB held its official interest rates overnight. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the ECB hasn’t pre-committed to another cut, but it’s on track to cut twice more in 2024, with one in September and one in December.
Australia’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, while jobs growth beat expectations at over 50,000. ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman sees the labour market still slowing, which he says should reassure the RBA.
Blair says the middle-of-the-road jobs data means a lot is now resting on Australia’s Q2 CPI at the end of the month for the markets to gauge what direction Australian interest rates might be headed.
Japan’s exports rose 5.4% annually in June, less than expected, but supporting Q2 GDP, which turned negative in Q1. ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan says the Yen has staged a turn-around in recent days.
Malaysia’s Q2 GDP out today is expected to grow 4.5% year on year, up from 4.2% in Q1. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty is looking for three key growth drivers.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week with key July PMI data from some of the world’s largest economies.
