Oil prices slip overnight on renewed hope the Iran conflict may not escalate. China’s inflation peaks in June, but not enough for an easing, and New Zealand’s manufacturing sector comes roaring back at the end of the June quarter.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell explains why a record fall of 2.1 million in the US labour force in the first six months of 2026 matters for the Fed.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
China’s consumer price inflation rate passed its peak for the current cycle in June, with annual CPI inflation falling to 1% from 1.2% in May. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says the number was slightly below market expectations, with 70% of the drop coming from falls in food and oil prices.
Zhaopeng says this lower inflation would normally create room for easier monetary policy, but the People’s Bank of China looks set to sit on its hands for now.
New Zealand’s manufacturing sector rebounded strongly in June, with the jump BusinessNZ-BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) amongst the fastest rises in the survey’s 24-year history, says ANZ Senior Economist Matt Galt.
New Zealand businesses just got on with life in June, even with the ongoing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, Matt says.
The rebound in New Zealand manufacturing in June is expected to help the economy grow in the second half, despite this week’s hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, says ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with the latest developments in the global economy, with US inflation data next Tuesday night and Chinese GDP figures next Wednesday.
