The Bank of England holds rates, but only just. US tech stocks wobble again. Australia’s trade surplus grows as gold exports are strong. Japan’s wage growth lags inflation, and Malaysia optimistically holds rates.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan analyses some key currency movements following the de-escalation in US-China trade relations, including for dollar-yen.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The Bank of England held its key policy rate at 4% overnight, but it was a close run thing, with 5 votes in favour of holding, and four in favour of a cut. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says the decision had a dovish tone and she sees rate cuts likely in December and the first quarter of next year.
Australia’s goods trade surplus rose nearly $3 billion in September to $4bn. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says that was driven by the strongest monthly gain in export values since April 2022, with a 62% monthly rise in non-monetary gold exports.
Sophia says Australia’s economy has been broadly resilient amid a period of global disruption from US trade policy.
Malaysia’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 2.75% as expected, pointing to a positive outlook for growth. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says rates should be on hold into the medium term.
In Japan, labour cash earnings grew 1.9% in September from a year ago, up from 1.3% in August. Despite the rise, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan says real cash earnings were still negative, falling 1.4%.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with a review of China’s latest export and price data.
