The price of Brent crude rises back over US$100/barrel as Iran’s new leader vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. US stocks fall. And ANZ Research upgrades its RBA call to hikes in both March and May.
And then our deep-dive interview ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses how well-placed India’s key economic players are to withstand a prolonged oil price shock.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
ANZ Research has upgraded its RBA call to a 25 basis point rate hike in March, followed by another in May. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell says the Middle East conflict is one of a number of pressures.
Aside from the Strait of Hormuz, attention in markets will swing tonight to US consumer price inflation data, which ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says will be the last piece of the puzzle before the Fed’s decision next week on interest rates, which is expected to be a hold.
So why wouldn’t the RBA just ‘look through’ the oil price shock? Adelaide says tolerance will be lower as inflation is already above target and other risks are showing through.
In New Zealand, some downside risk to growth at the end of last year, as Q4 manufacturing sales volumes fell 0.5%. ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt had been expecting a rise, and says the headline was disappointing.
India’s inflation rate rose as expected in February to 3.2% from a year ago from 2.7% in January. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.3% ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim says that’s a good starting position heading into the oil price shock.
Cheers
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week with rate decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England.
